Photo : Reuters photo/Daily Sabah
13 August 2022, Saturday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #279
War in Ukraine: Day 170
By Sai Pranav
War on the ground
On 12 August, Ukraine's minister of foreign affairs, Dmytro Kuleba, discussed the global consequences of Russia's aggression and ways to counter them with the Dominican Republic's foreign minister Roberto Alvarez. San Domingo and Ukraine agreed to improve their bilateral relationship. Kuleba appreciated the support of the Dominican Republic amid the war, including within the UN.
On 12 August, two draft laws were introduced by Ukraine's president Volodymyr Zelenskyy on the extension of general mobilization and martial laws in Ukraine. The contents of the draft are yet to made available for the public.
On 11 August, Ukraine's Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reported on Russia’s attempts to discredit the name of president Zelenskyy. Russia's president approved the information attack initiated to create a foundation in the name of Zelenskyy targeting foreign aid institutions and focusing on a multi-level marketing scheme to recruit European states. The Russians had already designed websites and social media pages for the foundation and have circulated fake photos and comments. The defence ministry urged people to be cautious about rumours and fake news.
The GUR also reported on Russia’s industrial mobilization of its defence firms. In Companies such as Rostec, the employees were banned from taking a vacation by Kremlin. Russia's president Vladimir Putin heading the country's Military-Industrial Commission was reported to be planning to change the state defence order program by September. Russia was found to be trying to enlarge its operations in the military-industrial complex.
Ukraine's nuclear energy company Enerhoatom announced that there were damages to many radiation sensors in the Zaporizhzhya nuclear power plant complex, and grasses were on fire nearby. No injuries were reported. IAEA concluded that if the reactor were to be shelled, the world would face a nuclear disaster that was much worse than Chornobyl in 1986.
The Moscow View
Claims by Russia
According to Russia’s foreign ministry spokesperson, Alexander Darchiev, the war over the visa ban is expected to sustain upon continuity of the US action against Russia. This would negatively impact diplomatic workers and make it difficult for Russian citizens to attain US visas. He also said that if the US declares Russia as a state sponsor of terrorism, the US will cross a point of no return, which will degrade or even break their bilateral relations leading to severe damages.
As per Russia’s statistics agency, Rosstat, the economy has diminished by four per cent in the second quarter, on a year-on-year basis. The GDP of Russia which increased to 3.5 per cent year-on-year in the initial three months of 2022, is not set to face recession upon the effect of western sanctions on its energy and banking sectors.
The West View
Responses from the US and Europe
On 12 August, the UK's defence ministry intelligence reported on the Crimean blast. It found that, although the exact cause of the blast in Saky was unknown, a Russia-controlled military airfield in the western part of Crimea. The eyewitness sighted a giant mushroom cloud, where at least five Su-24 FENCER fighter bombers and three SU-30 FLANKER H multi-role jets were either destroyed or damaged. The damage to Russia's Black Sea Fleet significantly degraded the quality of Russia’s naval and aviation capabilities.
The joint acquisition of Triton Power of Jersey by SSE Thermal of the UK and Equinor New Energy Limited of Norway was approved by the European Commission under the EU Merger Regulation. The Commission explained that Triton Power's electricity generating firm had no activities in the European Economic Area, so there would be no concern for the acquisition.
On 12 August, Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan returned to Turkey after he met with Putin in Sochi. The Confidential meeting between the two leaders drew the attention of the West. Turkey and Russia have decided to deepen their relationship and expand their cooperation in the economic and energy sectors. The EU has expressed its concerns over the relations between Turkey and Russia, and opened the possibility of imposing secondary sanctions on Turkey.
On the same day, the European Space Agency (ESA) started its initial dialogue with Elon Musk's SpaceX to use its launcher temporarily after access to Russia's Soyuz rockets was blocked by the war in Ukraine. The private space firm will be an important choice for ESA to close the gap between itself and Japan and India in terms of launching the delayed Ariane 6 rocket.
The Global Fallouts
Implications of the Ukraine war
Kazakhstan is expected to supply its crude oil through the pipeline of Azerbaijan as an alternative route to the one Russia threatened. Before the Ukraine conflict, crude oil from Kazakhstan was provided through the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) line to Russia's Black Sea port of Novorossiisk, which was threatened to be shut down by a Russian court. Currently, Kazakhstan is trying to supply through the Azeri pipeline in Azerbaijan to circumvent Russia's threat.
Ukraine's nuclear energy company Enerhoatom announced that there were damages to many radiation sensors in the Zaporizhzhya nuclear power plant complex, and grasses were on fire nearby. No injuries were reported. IAEA concluded that if the reactor were to be shelled, the world would face a nuclear disaster that was much worse than Chernobyl in 1986. The recent shelling has caused concerns to IAEA and it required immediate access to the power plant.
References
Dmytro Kuleba, "update on Ukraine's bilateral relations," Twitter, 12 August 2022,"
“Draft Law on Approval of the Decree of the President of Ukraine "On extension of martial law in Ukraine",” itd.rada.gov.ua, 12 August 2022
"Draft Law on Approving the Decree of the President of Ukraine "On Extending the Term of General Mobilization"," itd.rada.gov.ua, 12 August 2022
“RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT, AUGUST 11," ISW, 12 August 2022
"Ukraine Invasion Updates," criticalthreats, 12 August 2022
"The Russian Foreign Ministry accused the United States of spinning the flywheel of the "visa war"," LENTA.RU, 13 August 2022
“Russia-Ukraine updates: Moscow rejects demand to hand over Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant,” Deutsche Welle, 12 August 2022
"Diplomat says Russia warned US of ‘points of no return’ in bilateral relations," TASS, 13 August 2022
George Wright, "Ukraine war: Crimea blasts significantly hit Russian navy - UK," BBC, 12 August 2022
"Daily News 12 / 08 / 2022," Europa.eu, 12 August 2022
Tim Hepher and Joey Roulette, "Exclusive: Europe eyes Musk's SpaceX to bridge launch gap left by Russia tensions," Reuters, 12 August 2022
Sinem Ozdemir, "Turkey and Russia: A partnership essential to both," Deutsche Welle, 12 August 2022
"Kazakhstan to start selling oil via Azeri pipeline to sidestep Russia," Daily Sabah, 12 August 2022
"Update 91 – IAEA Director General Statement on Situation in Ukraine," iaea.org, 12 August 2022
IN BRIEF
By Rishma Banerjee
POLAND
Poland’s authorities pledged to investigate the reason behind the dead fish in River Oder
On 11 August, at least 10 tonnes of dead fish were pulled out from a 200-kilometre stretch in the river Oder which flows along Poland and Germany’s border. The agency managing the Polish national waters, State Water Holding, has warned people not to enter the water. The head of the agency, Przemyslaw Daca has called the situation an ecological catastrophe. Regional environmental protection authorities said that water samples from the Oder taken on 28 July showed it had an 80 per cent possibility of containing a toxic substance called Mesitylene, but it was not present in samples taken after 01 August. Poland’s government which has been under pressure about the handling of this issue has pledged to investigate the source and nature of the possible contamination. (Marek Strzelecki, “Dead fish in River Oder on Polish-German border spur contamination probe,” Reuters, 12 August 2022)
The UK
Wales secretary switched from Sunak to support Truss for the Tory leadership
On 12 August, Wales secretary Sir Robert Buckland became the second person to publicly switch his Tory leadership endorsement from Rishi Sunak to Liz Truss. Initially, Buckland had backed Sunak’s “clear thinking,” but after the change in his stance said: “It is time for positive politics, time to come together, and time for Liz to lead.” He said that while he has worked extensively with both the candidates, as the campaigns progressed, he found Truss’s policies of economic management as the right way to take the UK forward. Buckland appreciated Truss’s commitment to a British bill of rights that overrides the power of Europe’s human rights courts, her supply-side reforms, and her positive politics. (Sarah Haque, “Tory leadership: Buckland first in cabinet to flip support from Sunak to Truss,” The Guardian, 13 August 2022)
CLIMATE CHANGE
Europe reeling under extreme heat and extensive drought conditions
On 12 August, the European Commission Joint Research Center (EC-JRC) warned that the current drought conditions prevailing in Europe could be the worst in 500 years. The centre mentioned that as the situation is ongoing, it has not yet been fully analyzed, but also predicted that the drought might reach 47 per cent of the continent. Two-thirds of the European Union area has issued drought warnings. A senior researcher from the centre, Andrea Toreti who announced the news, also said that this drought has the potential to be worse than the crisis in 2018. As of now, Italy’s Po River, Germany’s Rhine River and the UK’s Thames are recording extremely low levels of water, while southern France and large areas of Spain and Portugal have also been affected. (Zia Weise and Antonia Zimmermann, “Starving hedgehogs, dry rivers, parched farms: The toll of Europe’s worsening drought,” POLITICO, 11 August 2022; Thomas Blade, “Europe's drought could be the worst in 500 years, warns researcher, Euronews, 10 August 2022)
INTERNATIONAL
China-backed East Europe forum becomes 14+1 after Latvia and Estonia withdraw
On 12 August, Latvia and Estonia reported that they will leave a China-backed cooperation framework of central and eastern European countries and China. The forum had been set up to strengthen relations between China and EU member states and Serbia. The additional objective is to further the Belt and Road Initiative and construct bridges, railways, power plants, and other infrastructure across the Eurasian continent. Both Latvia and Estonia’s governments said that they will continue to strive for bilateral relations with China, but are withdrawing from the 17-country grouping. The move comes after China launched economic and diplomatic retaliation against Lithuania, for strengthening ties with Taiwan. (“Latvia, Estonia leave China-backed East Europe forum,” AP, 12 August 2022)
Germany pulls troops from Mali amidst accusations of increased interference from the Mali government
On 12 August, Germany suspended its military mission to Mali. The German deployment in Mali is a part of a United Nations mission called MINUSMA, to observe peacekeeping in the country where terrorists and Russia’s mercenaries continue to destabilize peace. However, relations between Germany and Mali’s military junta have been deteriorating for some time due to Mali’s increasing belligerence towards the West. Mali’s government has also imposed several restrictions like denial of overflight rights. The decision to freeze the deployments comes after the failure to rotate 140 soldiers in Gao. Germany’s defence minister Christine Lambrecht said: “Camara’s actions speak a different language than his words. Therefore, we must take action and suspend the operations of our reconnaissance forces and transport flights, until further notice.” (Ilya Gridneff, “In unstable Sahel, Germany pulls troops out of Mali,” POLITICO, 12 August 2022)
EU’s proposal to renew the 2015 nuclear deal weakens US sanctions on Iran
On 12 August, POLITICO reported that the EU’s proposal to renew the nuclear deal between the US and Iran will weaken the sanctions imposed by the US on Iran’s Revolutionary Guards. The terms of the proposal will also enable Iran to avoid the scrutiny of the atomic sites. Initially, the terms of the draft submitted by the EU suggested that the Biden government is ready to make greater concessions to secure the deal, but U.S. special envoy for the Iran talks, Rob Malley has since refuted the claim. Malley said: We have not engaged in any negotiation about changing due diligence, know-your-customer, or other U.S. sanctions compliance standards for sanctions… Any report to the contrary is flat out wrong,” (Matthew Karnitsching, “EU proposes lifting pressure on Iran’s Revolutionary Guards to revive nuclear deal,” POLITICO, 12 August 2022)